Move the Goalposts!

I’m a Skeptic.

But I’m a very concerned skeptic.

If reality interests you, perhaps you might like to run your eye over this lot and wonder. Or not; it’s your money and your family’s future that politicians—and others—are playing with …

(Please note:
I put my conclusions at the front door rather than the more traditional back. This way you are better prepared for when you do go in.)

=================

CONCLUSIONS, main factors

BIOFUELS

• may not be the godsend they are touted to be:

• taken in depth they will raise food prices

• taken to extremes they may create artificial famines

• the New Zealand government jumps in at the deep end, again

TREES

• as carbon sinks against Global Warming (GW):

• we are exhorted from all sides to plant trees as an anti-GW measure

• we may soon be restricted to harvesting ‘approved’ trees only—licenses? (my prediction—P)

• Kyoto artificially vastly increases trees’ values

• but, in Temperate zones trees work against us, not for us

• therefore planting trees in NZ is actually not good

AIRLINES AS ‘POLLUTERS’

• airlines popularly considered to greatly increase GW

• recently discovered phenomenon called Global Dimming (GD)

• GD works against GW

• new airliner’s selling point, ‘eco friendlier’

but:

• more ‘eco friendly’ will mean more GW, not less

***** *****

(Excerpts & refs follow) 

THE LOOMING FOOD CRISIS

“Land that was once used to grow food is increasingly being turned over to biofuels. This may help us to fight global warming – but it is driving up food prices throughout the world and making life increasingly hard in developing countries … add in water shortages, natural disasters and an ever-rising population, and what you have is a recipe for disaster …  John Vidal reports …”

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/aug/29/food.g2?gusrc=rss&feed=networkfront

===========

“Southland to be part of biodiesel growth Trial”

(Oilseed rape as a source of biodiesel) “within two years we would like to see between 20,000 to 30,000 hectares (approx 70,000 acres—P) … the New Zealand government has mandated that biofuels will form an increasing percentage of transport fuels from April 1, 2008 etc”

Southland Times, August 28, 2007

===========

Carbon Credits up Against Emissions

The forests of Otago and Southland could well be thought of as green gold, thanks to the carbon-storing qualities of its (sic) trees …

… trees are crucial in offsetting carbon emissions, a feature that not only helps in the fight against global warming …

… putting trees in the ground provides natural filters to enhance air quality and slows the rate of global warming, it is therefore critical that those areas stay in forest …

Southland Times, August 28, 2007

============

Some forests may speed global warming

“… the lungs of the planet they may be, but in some parts of the world forests can actually speed up global warming … a report suggests that removing some trees could actually help the climate …

Govindasamy Bala and colleagues at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory in California modelled deforestation and found that at higher latitudes dark forest canopies trap more heat compared with tundra and snow-covered ground, which are better at reflecting the sun’s rays (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol 104, p 6550). Planting trees at higher latitudes could accelerate global warming, they say …”

From issue 2599 of New Scientist magazine, 14 April 2007, page 6

===============

Location is key for trees to fight global warming

“… everybody knows that trees are good for the climate, because they absorb greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, right? Maybe not, says a team of US and French climate experts. They say that whether or not trees help fight global warming depends on where they are … tropical forests are better at storing carbon than their counterparts at mid-to-high latitudes … the climate warming due to the absorption of heat by leaves more than offsets the cooling effect from carbon uptake, says Bala … the team found that if they removed forests from the planet in 2000, global temperatures in 2100 were 0.2°C cooler than if forests were left intact … the bottom line is that planting forests in boreal regions may not be the solution to climate change, says Christine Delire, at the Université Montpellier II, France, who worked with Bala …”

http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn10811-location-is-key-for-trees-to-fight-global-warming.html

===============

An improved airliner (more climate friendly)

” … the mid-sized plane, which seats up to 330 passengers and is capable of flying long-haul routes using up to 20 per cent less fuel while pumping out fewer greenhouse gases, will be rolled out for 300 gathered media … the 787 will provide airlines with unmatched fuel efficiency, resulting in exceptional environmental performance,’ Boeing has said.”

http://ffxcam.smh.com.au/html.ng/cat=travel&loc=1&ctype=ffxnewsstory&domain=smh.com.au&adspace=300×125&site=smh&cat1=news&isiframe=yes

===============

… Global dimming creates a cooling effect that may have partially masked the effect of greenhouse gases on global warming …

… some climate scientists have theorised that aircraft contrails (also called vapour trails) are implicated in global dimming … the near-total shutdown of civil air traffic during the three days following the September 11, 2001 attacks afforded a rare opportunity in which to observe the climate of the USA absent from the effect of contrails. During this period, an increase in diurnal temperature variation of over 1 °C was observed in some parts of the US, i.e. aircraft contrails may have been raising nighttime temperatures and/or lowering daytime temperatures by much more than previously thought …

Wikipedia, on GLOBAL DIMMING

===============

BBC, HORIZON, an interview

” … one degree in just three days … this was a new kind of climate change. Scientists call it Global Dimming. Two years ago most of them had never even heard of it, yet now they believe it may mean all their predictions about the future of our climate could be wrong … if we compare those very early measurements in the 1950s with the current measurements, there was a staggering 22% drop in the sunlight … a truly global phenomenon …’ you are um contradicting global warming. Er do you know how many billions of dollars was spent on global warming research and you and this old guy er are contradicting er us’ … Global dimming is a killer … behind the worst climatic disaster of recent times, responsible for famine and death on a biblical scale … is poised to strike again … the polluted clouds were reflecting more light back into space, preventing the heat of the sun getting through … there’s a terrible catch. Because while Global Dimming is itself a major threat to humanity, it now appears it has been protecting us from an even greater threat … solve the problem of Global Dimming and the world could get considerably hotter … it may already be happening … we live in a global warming plus a Global Dimming world, and now we are taking out Global Dimming … “

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_prog_summary.shtml

====================

CONCLUSION

The goal posts keep shifting; left, right and centre.